← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 21, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Grayson Rodriguez (ERA 7.17, WHIP 1.59) · home: Peter Lambert (ERA 3.11, WHIP 1.15)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Los Angeles Angels · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.55 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.55 | $5.47 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 62% | 1.62 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 38% | 2.67 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.29 | 2.58 | +12.9% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.57 | 1.53 | -2.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| Houston Astros | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1505.29 | 1420.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.87 | -1.16 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.10 |