Tampa Bay Rays 1–5 Toronto Blue Jays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 20, 05:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Shane Bieber (ERA 4.99, WHIP 1.56) · home: Ian Seymour (ERA 4.11, WHIP 1.13)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Toronto Blue Jays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.59	$15.88	+7%	+15.88	won
Toronto Blue Jays win in Tampa Bay Rays v Toronto Blue Jays · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.59	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.59	$15.88	+7%	+15.88	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Tampa Bay Rays win	62%	1.65
Toronto Blue Jays win	38%	2.66

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Toronto Blue Jays win		2.52	2.40	-4.8%
Tampa Bay Rays win		1.50	1.60	+6.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Toronto Blue Jays	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	5
Tampa Bay Rays	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Tampa Bay Rays	Toronto Blue Jays
congestion 21d	18.00	19.00
elo	1531.61	1511.78
elo momentum (last 5)	-9.55	7.66
matches since win	0.00	1.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	5.70	4.00
runs for avg (last 10)	6.30	4.50