← Major League Baseball 2026 · Thu, Aug 20, 05:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Landen Roupp (ERA 4.31, WHIP 1.3) · home: Gavin Williams (ERA 3.74, WHIP 1.08)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in Cleveland Guardians v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
San Francisco Giants win in Cleveland Guardians v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.52 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.52 | $15.22 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians win | 60% | 1.70 |
| San Francisco Giants win | 40% | 2.66 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 2.24 | 2.59 | +15.7% | |
| Cleveland Guardians win | 1.65 | 1.52 | -7.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cleveland Guardians | San Francisco Giants |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1491.27 | 1463.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.57 | -8.58 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |