← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 19, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Logan Gilbert (ERA 3.28, WHIP 0.99) · home: Dustin May (ERA 4.13, WHIP 1.25)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +17% | -10.00 | lost |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Portfolio | $20.62 | 1.76 | $15.73 | +6% | -20.62 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 53% | 13.41 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 47% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.09 | 1.06 | -49.4% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.67 | 13.41 | +700.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1579.90 | 1485.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.35 | 1.24 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.10 |