← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 16, 07:00 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Hunter Dobbins (ERA 3.4, WHIP 1.31) · home: Edward Cabrera (ERA 5.1, WHIP 1.4)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Portfolio | $14.45 | 1.67 | $9.68 | +4% | -14.45 | lost |
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.70 | +9% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs win | 59% | 2.98 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 41% | 2.46 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 2.40 | 2.35 | -2.2% | |
| Chicago Cubs win | 1.46 | 1.62 | +11.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| Chicago Cubs | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1558.38 | 1494.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.53 | 8.01 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.10 |