← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 15, 08:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Michael Lorenzen (ERA 6.83, WHIP 1.88) · home: Logan Webb (ERA 3.59, WHIP 1.08)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +5% | +5.71 | won |
San Francisco Giants win in San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +5% | +5.71 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants win | 61% | 1.60 |
| Colorado Rockies win | 39% | 2.59 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.34 | 2.52 | +7.7% | |
| San Francisco Giants win | 1.57 | 1.55 | -1.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1467.43 | 1395.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.43 | 6.98 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.40 |