← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Aug 15, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Emerson Hancock (ERA 3.35, WHIP 1.12) · home: Hayden Wesneski (ERA 3.86, WHIP 1.18)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.79 | $7.94 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Houston Astros win in Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 55% | 1.79 |
| Seattle Mariners win | 45% | 2.24 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners win | 2.09 | 2.05 | -2.1% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.67 | 1.79 | +7.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| Houston Astros | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1515.05 | 1483.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.22 | -9.22 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.20 |