← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Aug 14, 10:40 PM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.30 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.30 | $13.00 | +3% | +13.00 | won |
Pittsburgh Pirates win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.30 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.30 | $13.00 | +3% | +13.00 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 55% | 1.83 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 45% | 2.30 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.73 | 1.70 | -1.9% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.05 | 2.23 | +8.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 8 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 20.00 |
| elo | 1486.48 | 1555.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.21 | -6.96 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.40 |