← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 11, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Nick Lodolo (ERA 4.6, WHIP 1.47) · home: Sean Burke (ERA 3.08, WHIP 1.12)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Chicago White Sox v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.40 | $14.00 | +2% | +14.00 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.76 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.76 | $7.63 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 56% | 1.76 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 44% | 2.40 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 2.05 | 2.34 | +14.2% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.76 | 1.62 | -8.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Chicago White Sox | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 18.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1498.11 | 1473.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.94 | -7.87 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 2.23 | 2.31 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |