← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 9, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Sean Manaea (ERA 4.33, WHIP 1.38) · home: Jared Jones (ERA 4.02, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Mets win in Pittsburgh Pirates v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.25 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.25 | $12.50 | +0% | +12.50 | won |
New York Mets win in Pittsburgh Pirates v New York Mets · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.25 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.25 | $12.50 | +0% | +12.50 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 55% | 1.76 |
| New York Mets win | 45% | 2.25 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets win | 2.05 | 2.19 | +6.6% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.76 | 1.70 | -3.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| elo | 1492.15 | 1480.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.43 | 11.07 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |