Colorado Rockies 0–4 Tampa Bay Rays

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 07:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Nick Martinez (ERA 2.77, WHIP 1.1) · home: Tomoyuki Sugano (ERA 4.47, WHIP 1.26)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Tampa Bay Rays win in Colorado Rockies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.67	$6.75	+5%	+6.75	won
Tampa Bay Rays win in Colorado Rockies v Tampa Bay Rays · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.67	$6.75	+5%	+6.75	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Tampa Bay Rays win	59%	1.70
Colorado Rockies win	41%	4.98

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Tampa Bay Rays win		1.57	1.62	+3.2%
Colorado Rockies win		2.19	2.35	+7.3%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Tampa Bay Rays	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	4
Colorado Rockies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Colorado Rockies	Tampa Bay Rays
congestion 21d	16.00	19.00
elo	1388.14	1524.10
elo momentum (last 5)	7.80	-3.66
matches since win	2.00	0.00
rest days	0.77	0.77
runs against avg (last 10)	6.20	3.70
runs for avg (last 10)	5.90	3.60