← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jake Irvin (ERA 5.56, WHIP 1.32) · home: Andrew Painter (ERA 6.72, WHIP 1.61)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
Philadelphia Phillies win in Philadelphia Phillies v Washington Nationals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.65 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.65 | $6.48 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 59% | 1.90 |
| Washington Nationals win | 41% | 2.59 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals win | 2.24 | 1.93 | -13.6% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.62 | 1.90 | +16.9% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1543.05 | 1461.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.27 | -12.83 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.60 |