← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Aug 5, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: · home: Rhett Lowder (ERA 5.42, WHIP 1.52)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +6% | +7.03 | won |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +6% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 56% | 1.83 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 44% | 2.40 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.14 | 2.19 | +2.2% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.67 | 1.70 | +1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1481.25 | 1418.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.25 | -15.61 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.10 |