← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 4, 11:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jared Jones (ERA 3.81, WHIP 1.02) · home: Logan Henderson (ERA 2.66, WHIP 0.91)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.60 | $5.96 | +5% | +5.96 | won |
Milwaukee Brewers win in Milwaukee Brewers v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +3% | +5.71 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 60% | 1.65 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 40% | 2.46 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 2.40 | 2.34 | -2.4% | |
| Milwaukee Brewers win | 1.62 | 1.62 | 0.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1571.14 | 1497.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.16 | -2.15 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.70 |