← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 4, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ryan Gusto (ERA 5.31, WHIP 1.44) · home: Grant Holmes (ERA 3.88, WHIP 1.36)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.69 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.69 | $6.90 | +5% | +6.90 | won |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.73 | $7.32 | +8% | +7.32 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 59% | 1.73 |
| Miami Marlins win | 41% | 3.18 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 2.98 | 2.28 | -23.6% | |
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.42 | 1.67 | +17.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | — | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1546.28 | 1495.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.95 | 11.29 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.24 | 2.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |