← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Aug 4, 10:40 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: J.T. Ginn (ERA 3.46, WHIP 1.22) · home: Brady Singer (ERA 4.35, WHIP 1.42)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +6% | +7.03 | won |
Cincinnati Reds win in Cincinnati Reds v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +6% | +7.03 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 55% | 1.79 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 45% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.05 | 2.16 | +5.0% | |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.67 | 1.73 | +3.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1479.79 | 1420.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.71 | -16.56 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 2.21 | 2.11 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |