← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Aug 3, 11:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Michael McGreevy (ERA 3.57, WHIP 1.2) · home: Cam Schlittler (ERA 2.04, WHIP 0.91)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.53 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.53 | $5.30 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.60 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.60 | $5.96 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 60% | 6.29 |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 40% | 2.81 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 2.29 | 1.15 | -49.7% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.62 | 6.29 | +288.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 13 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| elo | 1554.91 | 1480.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.11 | -2.01 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.90 |