← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Aug 2, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Luinder Avila (ERA 4.95, WHIP 1.57) · home: Ryan Feltner (ERA 5.73, WHIP 1.46)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.05 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.05 | $10.50 | +14% | -10.00 | lost |
Kansas City Royals win in Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +10% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies win | 50% | 2.09 |
| Kansas City Royals win | 50% | 13.41 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 1.79 | 1.98 | +10.1% | |
| Colorado Rockies win | 2.05 | 1.90 | -7.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | — | 12 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| elo | 1383.68 | 1450.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.06 | 0.10 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.00 |