← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 29, 04:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Eduardo Rodriguez (ERA 2.64, WHIP 1.24) · home: Jared Jones (ERA 3.72, WHIP 1.02)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +0% | +12.00 | won |
Arizona Diamondbacks win in Pittsburgh Pirates v Arizona Diamondbacks · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.20 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.20 | $12.00 | +0% | +12.00 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 55% | 1.79 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 45% | 2.20 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks win | 2.01 | 2.14 | +6.5% | |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.70 | 1.73 | +1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pittsburgh Pirates | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| elo | 1503.50 | 1512.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.93 | -4.38 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.40 |