New York Mets v Atlanta Braves

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 28, 11:10 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Chris Sale (ERA 2.19, WHIP 1.05) · home: Christian Scott (ERA 3.13, WHIP 1.26)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.38	Elo value MLB	$10.00	2.38	$13.80	+6%	—	pending
New York Mets win in New York Mets v Atlanta Braves · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.24	MLB dog variance	$10.00	2.24	$12.36	-1%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Atlanta Braves win	59%	1.67
New York Mets win	41%	2.46

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Atlanta Braves win		1.62	1.62	0.0%
New York Mets win		2.19	2.34	+7.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.