⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Chicago White Sox 12–3 Houston Astros

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 06:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Ronel Blanco (ERA 7.71, WHIP 1.07) · home: Erick Fedde (ERA 4.16, WHIP 1.4)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86
Pitcher edge$10.001.86$8.61+4%+8.61won
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86
Elo value MLB$10.001.86$8.61+4%+8.61won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chicago White Sox win52%1.98
Houston Astros win48%7.25

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Houston Astros win1.931.93-0.1%
Chicago White Sox win1.761.90+8.1%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
Houston Astros1010100003
Chicago White Sox20100243—12

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChicago White SoxHouston Astros
congestion 21d12.0012.00
elo1493.231501.86
elo momentum (last 5)-4.7017.31
matches since win2.000.00
rest days0.790.79
runs against avg (last 10)3.403.70
runs for avg (last 10)4.505.10