← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Ronel Blanco (ERA 7.71, WHIP 1.07) · home: Erick Fedde (ERA 4.16, WHIP 1.4)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +4% | +8.61 | won |
Chicago White Sox win in Chicago White Sox v Houston Astros · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +4% | +8.61 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox win | 52% | 1.98 |
| Houston Astros win | 48% | 7.25 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 1.93 | 1.93 | -0.1% | |
| Chicago White Sox win | 1.76 | 1.90 | +8.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Chicago White Sox | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | — | 12 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chicago White Sox | Houston Astros |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1493.23 | 1501.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.70 | 17.31 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.10 |