← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 26, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Jeffrey Springs (ERA 5.96, WHIP 1.42) · home: Connor Prielipp (ERA 5, WHIP 1.37)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota Twins win in Minnesota Twins v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +1% | +7.03 | won |
Oakland Athletics win in Minnesota Twins v Oakland Athletics · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.40 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.40 | $13.99 | -3% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins win | 59% | 1.74 |
| Oakland Athletics win | 41% | 18.75 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics win | 2.34 | 2.20 | -6.1% | |
| Minnesota Twins win | 1.52 | 1.71 | +12.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| Minnesota Twins | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — | 11 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Minnesota Twins | Oakland Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1468.92 | 1439.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.92 | 0.44 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 6.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |