← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Hunter Greene (ERA 6.06, WHIP 1.16) · home: Andre Pallante (ERA 4.02, WHIP 1.26)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.27 | +7% | +8.27 | won |
St. Louis Cardinals win in St. Louis Cardinals v Cincinnati Reds · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.27 | +7% | +8.27 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 51% | 1.90 |
| Cincinnati Reds win | 49% | 2.01 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds win | 1.86 | 1.97 | +5.9% | |
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.86 | 1.83 | -1.8% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1489.82 | 1478.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.02 | 10.28 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.30 |