← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 25, 08:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: JP Sears (ERA 4.38, WHIP 1.26) · home: Eury Pérez (ERA 3.53, WHIP 1.11)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | +3% | +12.10 | won |
San Diego Padres win in Miami Marlins v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.19 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.19 | $11.87 | +1% | +11.87 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 56% | 1.76 |
| San Diego Padres win | 44% | 2.24 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 2.05 | 2.17 | +5.8% | |
| Miami Marlins win | 1.67 | 1.73 | +3.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Miami Marlins | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1487.48 | 1503.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.50 | 3.36 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.70 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 6.40 |