← Major League Baseball 2026 · Fri, Jul 24, 10:45 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Will Warren (ERA 4, WHIP 1.37) · home: Jesús Luzardo (ERA 3.43, WHIP 1.21)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | Steam confusion | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | +1% | +12.10 | won |
New York Yankees win in Philadelphia Phillies v New York Yankees · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.21 | MLB dog variance | $10.00 | 2.21 | $12.10 | +1% | +12.10 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 56% | 1.82 |
| New York Yankees win | 44% | 2.21 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 2.14 | 2.13 | -0.5% | |
| Philadelphia Phillies win | 1.09 | 1.76 | +61.4% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1540.16 | 1550.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.34 | -0.52 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 1.99 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.40 |