← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 05:05 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Mitch Keller (ERA 5.14, WHIP 1.33) · home: Gerrit Cole (ERA 3.93, WHIP 1.16)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.67 | $6.75 | +1% | -10.00 | lost |
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Pittsburgh Pirates · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.67 | $3.37 | +1% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 54% | 7.85 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 46% | 2.46 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates win | 1.90 | 2.34 | +23.6% | |
| New York Yankees win | 1.60 | 1.62 | +1.6% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1551.91 | 1508.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.37 | 10.27 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.90 |