← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 11:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Bradish (ERA 3.61, WHIP 1.35)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.62 | Hot hand fade | $5.00 | 1.62 | $3.11 | -3% | -5.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 56% | 1.73 |
| Baltimore Orioles win | 44% | 2.34 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles win | 1.88 | 2.21 | +17.7% | |
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.67 | 1.70 | +1.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| elo | 1544.52 | 1501.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.93 | 4.74 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.90 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.40 |