← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 01:38 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Matthew Liberatore (ERA 5, WHIP 1.48) · home: Walbert Ureña (ERA 2.88, WHIP 1.32)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.86 | $8.61 | +6% | -10.00 | lost |
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.83 | $8.27 | +4% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 50% | 9.41 |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 50% | 2.01 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals win | 1.88 | 9.41 | +400.5% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 2.01 | 1.09 | -45.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1425.15 | 1499.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.68 | -6.50 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |