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Los Angeles Angels 5–1 St. Louis Cardinals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 01:38 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Matthew Liberatore (ERA 5, WHIP 1.48) · home: Walbert Ureña (ERA 2.88, WHIP 1.32)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.86
Elo value MLB$10.001.86$8.61+6%-10.00lost
St. Louis Cardinals win in Los Angeles Angels v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.83
Drought fade$10.001.83$8.27+4%-10.00lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
St. Louis Cardinals win50%9.41
Los Angeles Angels win50%2.01

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
St. Louis Cardinals win1.889.41+400.5%
Los Angeles Angels win2.011.09-45.7%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
St. Louis Cardinals0000100001
Los Angeles Angels50000000—5

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLos Angeles AngelsSt. Louis Cardinals
congestion 21d12.0013.00
elo1425.151499.58
elo momentum (last 5)-3.68-6.50
matches since win0.003.00
rest days0.980.98
runs against avg (last 10)4.504.00
runs for avg (last 10)2.503.70