← Major League Baseball 2026 · Wed, Jul 22, 12:10 AM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Tyler Phillips (ERA 3.48, WHIP 1.39) · home: Tatsuya Imai (ERA 6.06, WHIP 1.5)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami Marlins win in Houston Astros v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.16 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 2.16 | $11.60 | +2% | -10.00 | lost |
Miami Marlins win in Houston Astros v Miami Marlins · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.14 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 2.14 | $11.40 | +0% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros win | 55% | 2.09 |
| Miami Marlins win | 45% | 5.90 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins win | 1.93 | 5.90 | +205.5% | |
| Houston Astros win | 1.73 | 1.15 | -33.5% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Houston Astros | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 5 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Houston Astros | Miami Marlins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1487.86 | 1496.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.60 | -12.48 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.50 |