← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 21, 11:15 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Walker Buehler (ERA 5.36, WHIP 1.44) · home: Reynaldo López (ERA 3.5, WHIP 1.26)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Pitcher edge | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
Atlanta Braves win in Atlanta Braves v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.70 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.70 | $7.03 | +5% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves win | 58% | 1.72 |
| San Diego Padres win | 42% | 2.34 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 2.29 | 2.21 | -3.6% | |
| Atlanta Braves win | 1.55 | 1.70 | +10.1% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atlanta Braves | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1543.30 | 1498.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.95 | 0.90 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 4.80 |