Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Tue, Jul 21, 11:10 PM UTC · scheduled

Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Bradish (ERA 3.61, WHIP 1.35) · home: Ranger Suarez (ERA 3.15, WHIP 1.16)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.75	Hot hand fade	$5.00	1.75	$3.75	+5%	—	pending
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.75	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.75	$7.50	+5%	—	pending

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Boston Red Sox win	56%	1.90
Baltimore Orioles win	44%	2.24

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Baltimore Orioles win		2.07	2.16	+4.4%
Boston Red Sox win		1.65	1.76	+7.0%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.