Boston Red Sox 6–5 Baltimore Orioles

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Mon, Jul 20, 11:10 PM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Shane Baz (ERA 4.19, WHIP 1.39) · home: Payton Tolle (ERA 3.11, WHIP 1.07)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73	Pitcher edge	$10.00	1.73	$7.30	+4%	+7.30	won
Boston Red Sox win in Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.73	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.73	$7.32	+4%	+7.32	won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Boston Red Sox win	56%	1.79
Baltimore Orioles win	44%	2.34

across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Price movement — Match winner (2-way)

Outcome	Trend	First	Now	Move
Baltimore Orioles win		2.09	2.20	+5.0%
Boston Red Sox win		1.65	1.70	+3.4%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
Baltimore Orioles	1	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	5
Boston Red Sox	0	1	2	0	0	1	1	1	—	6

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Boston Red Sox	Baltimore Orioles
congestion 21d	13.00	12.00
elo	1540.13	1506.10
elo momentum (last 5)	13.98	15.59
matches since win	0.00	0.00
rest days	1.23	1.21
runs against avg (last 10)	1.80	2.20
runs for avg (last 10)	5.60	4.70