← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 19, 06:10 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Germán Márquez (ERA 5.18, WHIP 1.49) · home: Noah Cameron (ERA 4.89, WHIP 1.42)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego Padres win in Kansas City Royals v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.01 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.01 | $10.10 | +6% | +10.10 | won |
San Diego Padres win in Kansas City Royals v San Diego Padres · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.97 | Drought fade | $10.00 | 1.97 | $9.70 | +4% | +9.70 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals win | 52% | 23.43 |
| San Diego Padres win | 48% | 2.14 |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres win | 1.73 | 2.10 | +21.2% | |
| Kansas City Royals win | 1.36 | 1.79 | +31.7% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 19 |
| Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kansas City Royals | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| elo | 1452.29 | 1493.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.61 | -5.74 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |