← Bundesliga 2022-23 · Fri, Mar 3, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 41% | 41% | 2.38 | fair |
| RB Leipzig win | 32% | 38% | 3.03 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 27% | 20% | 3.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Borussia Dortmund −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 63% | 1.65 | value: +3% |
| Under | 41% | 37% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Christopher Nkunku · RB Leipzig |
| 17' | 🟨 | Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Marco Reus · Borussia Dortmund |
| 29' | 🟨 | Salih Özcan · Borussia Dortmund |
| 38' | 🟨 | Marcel Halstenberg · RB Leipzig |
| 39' | ⚽ | Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund |
| 45' | 🟨 | André Silva · RB Leipzig |
| 52' | 🟨 | Benjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig |
| 55' | 🟨 | Julian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund |
| 74' | ⚽ | Emil Forsberg · RB Leipzig |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Dortmund | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | SIGNAL IDUNA PARK |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 245.00 | 457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.93 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1885.93 | 1888.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.87 | 7.65 |
| eye test v1 | 1.48 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| league points | 46.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.47 | 27.60 |
| state index | 1.89 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.53 |