← Primera Division 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Hernandez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 73% | 62% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 11% | 5.75 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 11% | 27% | 9.00 | value: +146% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona −1.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona −1.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 74% | 1.40 | value: +4% |
| Under | 32% | 26% | 3.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 83' | 🟨 | Fernando Calero · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 87' | ⚽ | Lamine Yamal · FC Barcelona |
| 89' | ⚽ | Marcus Rashford · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Urko González · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 710.00 | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.47 |
| elo | 2021.81 | 1649.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.81 | -18.17 |
| eye test v1 | 1.96 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 76.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.53 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.04 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.72 | 28.45 |
| state index | 1.62 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.59 | 1.16 |