⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

seed: EPL 2022-23..2025-26

← all backtests · poisson_tw · seasons 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · markets 1x2, ou_goals_2_5

2322
bets placed · hit rate 33.7%
$-2504.09
P&L · ROI -7.0% on $36033 staked
-0.25%
CLV · avg edge vs closing line
0.2155 / 0.2093
Brier model/market · close is sharper

Calibration (all scored predictions)

0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%perfectbin 0.0-0.1 · n=144 · predicted 7.1% · actual 6.9%bin 0.1-0.2 · n=699 · predicted 16.2% · actual 16.3%bin 0.2-0.3 · n=1820 · predicted 24.7% · actual 25.9%bin 0.3-0.4 · n=1080 · predicted 35.5% · actual 37.6%bin 0.4-0.5 · n=1529 · predicted 45.0% · actual 43.6%bin 0.5-0.6 · n=1357 · predicted 54.8% · actual 56.0%bin 0.6-0.7 · n=736 · predicted 64.1% · actual 59.2%bin 0.7-0.8 · n=179 · predicted 74.4% · actual 71.5%bin 0.8-0.9 · n=52 · predicted 83.7% · actual 86.5%bin 0.9-1.0 · n=4 · predicted 91.5% · actual 100.0%predicted probabilityobserved frequency

Calibration table

BinnPredictedActual
0.0-0.11447.1%6.9%
0.1-0.269916.2%16.3%
0.2-0.31,82024.7%25.9%
0.3-0.41,08035.5%37.6%
0.4-0.51,52945.0%43.6%
0.5-0.61,35754.8%56.0%
0.6-0.773664.1%59.2%
0.7-0.817974.4%71.5%
0.8-0.95283.7%86.5%
0.9-1.0491.5%100.0%

Biggest swingsthe bets that moved this run most, either way

MatchMarketPickModel %Market %StakeP&L
Arsenal v Aston VillaMatch resultAston Villa win17.5%8.4%$19.35+164.48
Everton v ArsenalMatch resultEverton win19.0%12.2%$20.00+158.60
Newcastle v EvertonMatch resultEverton win19.2%9.3%$20.00+151.00
Chelsea v SunderlandMatch resultSunderland win28.9%12.4%$20.00+140.00
Brighton v EvertonMatch resultEverton win17.0%11.4%$14.28+105.39
Chelsea v FulhamMatch resultFulham win22.1%14.1%$18.68+99.38
Fulham v ArsenalMatch resultFulham win24.9%16.8%$20.00+98.80
Brighton v West HamMatch resultWest Ham win26.3%15.6%$20.00+96.20
Bournemouth v WolvesMatch resultWolves win24.3%18.4%$19.52+89.40
Brighton v FulhamMatch result
Fulham win
24.9%
15.3%
$20.00
+89.20
Liverpool v SunderlandMatch resultDraw26.0%17.7%$20.00+88.80
Chelsea v BrentfordMatch resultBrentford win27.5%17.3%$20.00+86.40
Man City v Aston VillaMatch resultAston Villa win14.9%14.5%$10.80+86.40
Sunderland v Man CityMatch resultDraw28.1%19.9%$20.00+83.00
Nott'm Forest v West HamMatch resultWest Ham win28.4%18.7%$20.00+82.60