← Premier League 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 58% | 60% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.21 | fair |
| Wolves win | 19% | 21% | 5.27 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.75 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Wolves −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 66% | 1.71 | value: +14% |
| Under | 43% | 34% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Santiago Bueno · Wolves |
| 22' | 🟨 | Miloš Kerkez · Bournemouth |
| 31' | 🟥 | Illia Zabarnyi · Bournemouth |
| 36' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Wolves |
| 44' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alex Scott · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kepa Arrizabalaga · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Doherty · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 602.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1922.98 | 1753.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.82 | 2.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.58 |
| league points | 43.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.62 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 27.67 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 207.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.27 |