← Premier League 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 61% | 67% | 1.61 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.22 | fair |
| Fulham win | 16% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Arsenal +1 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 63% | 1.85 | value: +16% |
| Under | 47% | 37% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 29' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 59' | ⚽ | Bobby Decordova-Reid · Fulham |
| 65' | 🟨 | Tom Cairney · Fulham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Calvin Bassey · Fulham |
| 86' | 🟨 | William Saliba · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernd Leno · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 913.00 | 364.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1780.22 | 2012.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.39 | -20.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 67.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| league points | 21.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 60.00 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 2.74 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 20.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 1.37 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.82 | 25.45 |
| state index | 0.51 | 1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 11.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.90 |