← Premier League 2022-23 · Mon, May 8, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 71% | 58% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 27% | 5.55 | value: +50% |
| Everton win | 11% | 15% | 8.52 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −1.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Brighton −1.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 53% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 47% | 2.63 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Amadou Onana · Everton |
| 1' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
| 18' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · Everton |
| 21' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 25' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 29' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Jason Steele · Everton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Everton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Doucouré · Everton |
| 76' | ⚽ | Dwight McNeil · Everton |
| 79' | ⚽ | Alexis Mac Allister · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 15 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | The American Express Community Stadium |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dwight McNeil · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 249.00 |
| 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1691.89 | 1494.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.16 | -21.99 |
| eye test v1 | 1.70 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 67.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 55.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 3.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.96 | -0.82 |
| solidity v1 | 0.45 | -2.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 27.68 |
| state index | 0.95 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -1.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 347.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 2.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.47 | 1.35 |