← FIFA World Cup 2026 · last 32 · Mon, Jun 29, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Brazil win | 54% | 49% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.85 | value: +13% |
| Japan win | 19% | 22% | 5.20 | value: +12% |
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 50% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 50% | 2.30 | value: +14% |
across 10 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| No | 53% | 46% | 1.80 | fair |
| Yes | 47% | 54% | 2.08 | value: +13% |
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under 8 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Over 8 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 3 other lines captured
How many cards?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.17 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 4 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| qualified | home |
| stage | LAST_32 |
| venue | NRG Stadium |