← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Mar 4, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Newcastle win in Newcastle v Man United · Match result @ 2.63 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.00 | 2.63 | $32.60 | +24% | +32.60 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 37% | 30% | 2.60 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 37% | 46% | 2.60 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Newcastle +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 40% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Jacob Ramsey · Newcastle |
| 37' | 🟨 | Bryan Mbeumo · Man United |
| 38' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 39' | 🟨 | Luke Shaw · Man United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jacob Ramsey · Newcastle |
| 45' | 🟥 | Jacob Ramsey · Newcastle |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 45' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Man United |
| 64' | 🟨 | Noussair Mazraoui · Man United |
| 80' | 🟨 | Kieran Trippier · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| William Osula · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1584.00 | 215.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1922.96 | 1960.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.52 | 29.62 |
| eye test v1 | 1.99 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| league points | 36.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 4.22 | 3.26 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.52 | 0.95 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 26.69 |
| state index | 0.87 | 1.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 173.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 0.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.49 | 1.51 |