← Premier League 2025-26 · Tue, Mar 3, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Burnley win in Everton v Burnley · Match result @ 6.00 | Main (your slate bets) | $1.00 | 6.00 | $5.00 | +29% | -1.00 | lost |
Burnley win in Everton v Burnley · Match result @ 6.00 | Main (your slate bets) | $14.68 | 6.00 | $73.40 | +29% | -14.68 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 59% | 63% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.80 | fair |
| Burnley win | 16% | 17% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Burnley −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | James Tarkowski · Everton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Everton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Bashir Humphreys · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| coach days |
| 245.00 |
| 214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1690.11 | 1573.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.58 | -17.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.20 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 40.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.08 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.05 | 27.16 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 62.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 0.75 |