← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Under in Man United v Crystal Palace · Over/Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.00 | 2.20 | $24.00 | +15% | -20.00 | lost |
Crystal Palace win in Man United v Crystal Palace · Match result @ 5.50 | Main (your slate bets) | $20.00 | 5.50 | $90.00 | +54% | -20.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 62% | 58% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 16% | 24% | 5.75 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Crystal Palace −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 60% | 1.73 | value: +3% |
| Under | 45% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Maxence Lacroix · Crystal Palace |
| 6' | 🟨 | Daichi Kamada · Crystal Palace |
| 36' | 🟨 | Diogo Dalot · Man United |
| 49' | 🟨 | Dean Henderson · Crystal Palace |
| 56' | 🟥 | Maxence Lacroix · Crystal Palace |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 65' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · Man United |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ayden Heaven · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 212.00 | 759.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1782.44 | 1680.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.91 | 6.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 48.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 5.75 | 2.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | 0.77 |
| solidity v1 | 0.62 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.05 | 26.35 |
| state index | 1.31 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.62 |