← Premier League 2020-21 · Sun, May 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stuart Attwell, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 66% | 58% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 5.06 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 14% | 23% | 7.00 | value: +62% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa +1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Chelsea +1.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 55% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 45% | 2.38 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Bertrand Traoré · Aston Villa |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jorginho · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Timo Werner · Chelsea |
| 49' | 🟨 | Mateo Kovačić · Chelsea |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Anwar El Ghazi · Aston Villa |
| 65' | 🟨 | John McGinn · Aston Villa |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ben Chilwell · Chelsea |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marvelous Nakamba · Aston Villa |
| 81' | 🟨 | Emiliano Martínez · Aston Villa |
| 89' | 🟥 | César Azpilicueta · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kepa Arrizabalaga · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aston Villa | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Villa Park |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 965.00 |
| 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1553.69 | 1731.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.77 | 24.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.70 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| league points | 52.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 4.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.12 | 27.26 |
| state index | 0.06 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 162.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |