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SC Corinthians Paulista 3–0 Clube do Remo

← Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 · regular season · Thu, Jul 23, 10:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Casagrande

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Corinthians Paulista win62%1.58
Draw23%4.20
Clube do Remo win14%7.50

across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.87
Over48%2.05

across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will both teams score?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
No54%1.75
Yes46%2.10

across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

How many corners?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 10.551%1.95
Under 10.549%1.98

across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

How many cards?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over 4.554%1.76
Under 4.546%2.03

across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured

Price movement — Match result

OutcomeTrendFirstNowMove
Clube do Remo win6.206.60+6.5%
Draw3.824.10+7.3%
SC Corinthians Paulista win1.571.50-4.5%

daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.

Timeline

26'⚽Yuri Alberto · SC Corinthians Paulista
40'⚽Kaio César · SC Corinthians Paulista
45'⚽Yuri Alberto · SC Corinthians Paulista
86'🟨Gabriel Paulista · SC Corinthians Paulista
86'🟨Marllon · Clube do Remo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSC Corinthians PaulistaClube do Remo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.00—
box share (last 5)0.490.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days113.00203.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00—
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueNeo Quimica Arena
0.00
0.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-3.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.809.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.562.22
elo1520.561464.19
elo momentum (last 5)-6.9426.20
eye test v10.56-0.07
eye trend v10.24-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)63.6061.10
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.10—
league points24.0018.00
league rank13.0019.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.0077.00
possession avg (last 5)64.8041.40
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.170.20
season ppg1.331.00
skill v11.16-0.63
solidity v10.40-0.65
sot against avg (last 5)3.606.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.20
squad age27.4129.90
state index0.210.26
sterile dominance v10.93-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.17
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.141.50
xg for avg (last 5)1.241.02