The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
Outcome
Market says
Best price
SC Corinthians Paulista win
62%
1.58
Draw
23%
4.20
Clube do Remo win
14%
7.50
across 14 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Under
52%
1.87
Over
48%
2.05
across 12 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will both teams score?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
No
54%
1.75
Yes
46%
2.10
across 11 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
How many corners?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 10.5
51%
1.95
Under 10.5
49%
1.98
across 9 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
How many cards?
Outcome
Market says
Best price
Over 4.5
54%
1.76
Under 4.5
46%
2.03
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed) · most-quoted line shown — 1 other line captured
Price movement — Match result
Outcome
Trend
First
Now
Move
Clube do Remo win
6.20
6.60
+6.5%
Draw
3.82
4.10
+7.3%
SC Corinthians Paulista win
1.57
1.50
-4.5%
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.