← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Oct 25, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 82% | 1.18 |
| Draw | 11% | 8.50 |
| FC Arouca win | 7% | 13.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca −2 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −2 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under | 34% | 2.87 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Vangelis Pavlidis · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Vangelis Pavlidis · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 43' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 50' | ⚽ | Vangelis Pavlidis · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 59' | 🟨 | Dodi Lukebakio · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 62' | 🟨 | Gianluca Prestianni · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 82' | 🟨 | Omar Fayed · FC Arouca |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Franjo Ivanović · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 116.00 | 389.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.35 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1833.56 | 1536.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.39 | -13.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 4.02 | 20.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.23 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | -1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.18 | 25.83 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 2.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.65 |