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Colorado Rockies 4–6 San Francisco Giants

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 12:10 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: · home: Tomoyuki Sugano (ERA 4.8, WHIP 1.32)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

BetStrategyStakeOddsTo winModel edgeP&LStatus
San Francisco Giants win in Colorado Rockies v San Francisco Giants · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.79
Elo value MLB$10.001.79$7.94+4%+7.94won

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
San Francisco Giants win54%1.79
Colorado Rockies win46%2.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Scoring by inning

123456789Total
San Francisco Giants4110000006
Colorado Rockies3000000014

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricColorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants
congestion 21d19.0017.00
elo1394.381469.58
elo momentum (last 5)11.11-6.35
matches since win0.001.00
rest days1.001.00
runs against avg (last 10)6.204.80
runs for avg (last 10)7.303.50