Chicago Cubs 0–3 St. Louis Cardinals

← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sun, Jul 5, 12:08 AM UTC

Probable pitchers: away: Kyle Leahy (ERA 4.09, WHIP 1.48) · home: Shota Imanaga (ERA 4.3, WHIP 1.08)

Riding on this matchevery paper bet with a leg in this game

Bet	Strategy	Stake	Odds	To win	Model edge	P&L	Status
Chicago Cubs win in Chicago Cubs v St. Louis Cardinals · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.67	Elo value MLB	$10.00	1.67	$6.75	+4%	-10.00	lost

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Chicago Cubs win	57%	1.67
St. Louis Cardinals win	43%	2.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Scoring by inning

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Total
St. Louis Cardinals	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3
Chicago Cubs	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The match in numberswhat each side looked like walking in

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Chicago Cubs	St. Louis Cardinals
congestion 21d	18.00	17.00
elo	1538.73	1502.02
elo momentum (last 5)	4.71	16.44
matches since win	1.00	0.00
rest days	1.17	1.17
runs against avg (last 10)	5.10	3.90
runs for avg (last 10)	7.40	4.70