← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 4, 05:35 PM UTC
Probable pitchers: away: Zebby Matthews (ERA 4.15, WHIP 1.14)
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Yankees win in New York Yankees v Minnesota Twins · Match winner (2-way) @ 1.57 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 1.57 | $5.71 | +7% | -10.00 | lost |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees win | 60% | 1.57 |
| Minnesota Twins win | 40% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| New York Yankees | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1551.61 | 1459.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.26 | 3.94 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.30 |