← Major League Baseball 2026 · Sat, Jul 4, 01:38 AM UTC
| Bet | Strategy | Stake | Odds | To win | Model edge | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red Sox win in Los Angeles Angels v Boston Red Sox · Match winner (2-way) @ 2.00 | Elo value MLB | $10.00 | 2.00 | $10.00 | +12% | +10.00 | won |
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels win | 51% | 1.96 |
| Boston Red Sox win | 49% | 2.00 |
across 23 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Trend | First | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox win | 1.93 | 1.96 | +1.4% | |
| Los Angeles Angels win | 1.86 | 1.88 | +1.0% |
daily consensus price (median across books). A shortening price means money is arriving on that outcome.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Los Angeles Angels | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| congestion 21d | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| elo | 1437.30 | 1509.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.21 | -2.99 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 1.00 | 2.34 |
| runs against avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.30 |
| runs for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |